New England Grid Operator Sees Demand on Grid Increasing by About 23% Over Next Decade

May 2, 2023

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
May 2, 2023

ISO New England projects demand on the region’s power grid will increase by about 23% over the next decade due to accelerating electrification of the heating and transportation sectors.

The findings were published in the 2023–2032 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT Report), a primary source for assumptions used in the ISO’s system planning and reliability studies.

The report provides a snapshot of the New England power system, including:

• A long-term forecast for energy consumption and peak demand, including 10-year forecasts accounting for the impacts of energy efficiency and behind-the-meter solar generation;
• The potential output of resources with capacity supply obligations, as well as the total generating capability of resources in the region;
• A breakdown of the region’s generators by fuel/unit classification; and
• A link to the listing of transmission projects proposed, planned and under construction.

ISO New England said that gross annual electricity use is expected to grow by 2.4% annually over the 10-year period, while net annual use is expected to grow by 2.3% annually.

Energy efficiency is projected to reduce grid demand by 11,582 GWh this year and 12,810 GWh in 2032, while behind the meter PV is projected to reduce grid demand by 4,442 GWh this year, rising to 8,168 GWh in 2032.

EVs are expected to account for 13,961 GWh of grid demand in 2032, while heating electrification is expected to account for 7,334 GWh of demand that year.

Under typical summer weather conditions, gross peak demand is expected to rise annually at a rate of 1.2%. Net peak demand is expected to rise at an annual rate of 1.1%. For weather that is hotter than average, the gross peak is expected to rise 1.1% annually and the net peak 1.0%.

The net forecast includes summer peak demand reductions from behind the meter PV of 981 MW this year, rising to 1,117 MW in summer 2032.

Energy efficiency is expected to reduce summer peak demand by 1,969 MW this year, and by 2,436 MW in 2032, while transportation electrification is expected to contribute 2,346 MW to summer peak demand in 2032.